ESA says El Niño could raise Europe’s cold and snowstorm risk this winter

The European Space Agency says the developing El Niño could raise the chance of European cold spells and snowstorms during winter 2026–27. The outcome depends on a sequence of atmospheric changes, however, and does not amount to a forecast of heavy Alpine snowfall.

El Niño begins with unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific. That heat can increase convection, meaning rising air and rainfall, which may generate atmospheric waves capable of reaching the stratosphere and disturbing the polar vortex.

A weakened polar vortex can alter the jet stream. If that produces persistent high-pressure blocking over Europe, Arctic air can move south and increase the risk of disruptive winter weather.

ESA cautioned: “This does not mean El Niño directly causes cold winters in Europe, but it can tilt the odds of certain winter patterns, especially when combined with other factors such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, which also affects how easily the polar vortex is disturbed.”

The US Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory on 13 August. It assessed the likelihood of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter at more than 90%, with further strengthening expected through the end of 2026. Its forecast also gave a 69% chance that the October to December event would be stronger than previous El Niños recorded since 1950.

What El Niño means for Alpine snow

Those probabilities concern Pacific sea temperatures, not European snowfall. “Super El Niño” is also a media term rather than an official meteorological category used by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Snow-Forecast.com challenged attempts to convert the event’s expected strength into an Alpine outlook: “Some reports circulating claim that El Niño affects the Alps in the same way it does mountain ranges around the Pacific. It does not.”

The site said Alpine winters are shaped more directly by the North Atlantic Oscillation, a pattern of pressure differences over the North Atlantic. El Niño can influence that system, but the direction may change between early and late winter, preventing a dependable season-long prediction.

The Met Office outlook also reflects that uncertainty. It says north-west Europe, including the UK, is more likely to see wetter and stormier weather in autumn and at the start of winter. Colder, calmer conditions may become more likely later in winter.

For skiers, ESA’s warning identifies one possible route to European snowstorms. Whether that route develops will depend on the polar vortex and the circulation over the North Atlantic as the season approaches.